Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Delta State was on January 7, 2011 declared winner of the re-run election. He polled a total of 275,253 votes. His rival, Chief Great Ogboru, Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) governorship candidate polled 138,244. Chief Ovie Omo-Agege of Republican Party of Nigeria was a distant third with 7,481 votes. Twelve other candidates did not poll significant number of votes. Dr. Uduaghan’s victory came three months after the Federal Court of Appeal nullified 2007 governorship election which he won. Chief Ogboru alleged that Uduaghan’s 2007 election was rigged and the Federal Court of Appeal agreed with him. His current term was supposed to end in May 2011.
Chief Ogboru led in the early returns after winning in Delta Central Senatorial District except in Ehiope West, stronghold of Uduaghan mentor, former governor James Ibori. Chief Ogboru won also in Oshimili South, Ndokwa West and Ukwuani Local Government Areas. Uduaghan cleared Patani, Burutu, Bomadi, Warri North and other parts of Delta winning 14 out of the 25 Local Government Areas. Chief Ogboru won 11 Local Government Areas.
Chief Ogboru and other DPP supporters reacted to the declaration of Uduaghan as the winner by besieging Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) headquarter in Asaba alleging irregularities and security lapses that nearly marred the re-run. The protesters alleged that INEC accepted the results despite the fact that they reported incidences of violence and ballot snatching. However, the neutral non-profit organization, National Coordinator of the Forum for Justice and Human Rights Defence, Mr. Oghenejabor Ikimi, whose group monitored the election as observers said, “Report reaching us from our coordinators who monitored the polls in the 25 local government areas of the state indicate that the governorship re-run election in Delta was generally peaceful except for some few incidents of the ballot snatching and late voting in parts of Udu, Sapele, Uvwie and Warri local government areas.”
What lessons can we draw from the Delta governor re-run?
- The election was fair despite some lapses. No election is perfect even in advanced countries. The defects in this election are too small to change the outcome.
- Tribe and geographic origin of the candidates within the state played a major role in the contest. Ogboru performed strongest in his home area of Delta Central Senatorial District where the Urhobos resides. On the other hand, Dr. Uduaghan performed strongest in Delta South Senatorial Districts, populated by the Ijaws, Itsekiris and Isokos. Itsekiri born Uduaghan won heavily in Itsekiri and Ijaw populated Local Government Areas partly due to strong support by President Jonathan who is Ijaw. Delta North Senatorial District became the king maker since they did not field any strong governorship candidate. Uduaghan won six of the nine local government areas in the district. Even though Uduaghan have not achieved much during his over three and half year tenure, his ethnic/tribe still prefer one of their own occupying the governor’s seat which means that competency and performance took back seat to tribe and regional affiliation. This happens in other parts of Nigeria as well until Nigeria politics matures to the point where competency triumphs over tribe, ethnicity, religion and regional origin.
- Party structure has a lot to do with Uduaghan win, PDP have the strongest political structure which is able to mobilize voters better than the opposition. Strong political structure makes all the difference. We have seem some of the above reasons play a part in varying degrees in governorship re-runs where Federal Court of Appeal overturned 2007 governor’s election. Incumbent PDP governors who were elected in 2007 election and later saw their election nullified by the Federal Court of Appeal, won re-run election in their respective states namely: Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Ibrahin Idris (Kogi), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Timpre Sylva (Bayelsa). Current Edo, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun governors won their seat through the Federal Court of Appeal which nullified disputed votes in certain local government area and mandates that they be sworn in as governors. So they have not been actually tested in a free and fair election. Some people may be offended that I called them untested. Let me explain my position clearly. The ideal situation is for a candidate to win in a free and far election. When the Federal Court of Appeal, which I respect, nullifies election in a particular local government area, the action distorts the overall vote cast because the nullified area may be a strong hold of a particular candidate. For example, if Great Ogboru challenges vote cast in Delta south which lies in Uduaghan strong-hold and the court nullifies some vote in the district, Uduaghan will be cheated and vice versa.
PDP may continue to win local, state and federal offices in a free and fair election by default since they have stronger party structure throughout the country. The opposition parties is so fragmented, splintered and lacks deep and wide organization required to mobilize large segment of the electorate. Others parties need to understand that rather than continually attribute PDP wins to rigging. Look at the coming presidential election which will take place in April 2011. Buhari left All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) which have some structure in the north and created a brand new party, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) which have little structure around the country. Buhari probably thinks that he can win national election on his strong name recognition and personality. That may not be enough. Strong party structure in most states will be required, same with other smaller parties. Smaller parties need to merge into a political party and give PDP a run for their money. People Democratic Party headed by President Goodluck Jonathan appears to be solidifying his base, reaching out and forming alliances across the country in order to win the coming election. Other parties need to do the same if they really want to dethrone PDP. Nigeria is so vast with different interests that inclusiveness and compromises will be required to garner enough votes to win local, state and federal offices.