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Analysis of 2015 Presidential Election

2015 Presidential election has come and gone. The analysis on how and why the incumbent President lost the election has been going on ever since. One of the so called analysis that caught my attention is a series of articles by a gentleman named Olaitan Ladipo. The title of his article is “How the Igbos Lost the Presidency for Jonathan”

He alleged that president Goodluck Jonathan lost the election because he populated his cabinets with the Igbos who lead him by the nose and convinced him that reaching out to the Yorubas was not necessary for the success of his administration. He further alleged that the incompetency of the Igbos and their greediness and looting of the federal treasury lead to his defeat. He further alleged that former president Obasanjo populated his cabinet with Igbos as well to the exclusion of the Yorubas which he attributed to Obasanjo’s hatred of his kinsmen.

I am continually amazed by how some people’s imagination works. First of all, one can accuse former president Obasanjo of everything under the sun, but not a Yoruba hater since he is a Yoruba man as well. Former president Obasanjo is certainly not a tribalist to the disappointment of Mr. Ladipo. Former president Obasanjo populated his cabinet with people from all regions of the country including Yorubas at the beginning of his presidency, but what he did not have patience for was incompetency. He routinely reshuffles his cabinets and never hesitated to fire people he considers as non-performers. Former president Obasanjo made it clear to anybody who cares to listen that he could not keep anybody in his government who is not performing regardless of their ethnicity. It so happens that some of the ministers he kept for extended period of time were Igbos because he thought they were doing a good job. Those ministers indeed served him well. His problem with the Yorubas has more to do with his autocratic leadership style and his tenure elongation attempt. Former president Obasanjo’s problem was that he paid lip service to democratic principles especially internal party democracy. He literally picked PDP candidates in some states and imposed the candidates on the state party especially in the south western states. His over-bearing attitude literally made south westerner to rebel and embraced the Action Congress of Nigeria headed by former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu.

Mr. Ladipo implied that the Igbos in Obasanjo administration are less competent compared to the competent people he would have gotten had he given Yorubas those cabinet positions. Let’s examine the competence of some of the Igbos in Obasanjo’s cabinet. First was former president Obasanjo’s finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. She was the woman who along with Obasanjo got the Paris club creditors to wipe away most of our foreign debt which was consuming 40% of our yearly budget. President Obasanjo and Mrs.Okonjo-Iweala ended up paying off the remaining debt. She laid foundation for the privatization effort during Obasanjo’s tenure and played major role in the economy which grew at a steady rate then and now. He made sure that the national budget was put together on time and fully implemented. No educated and knowledgeable person without agenda will consider Mrs. Okonjo Iweala as incompetent.

Another was Mr., Soludo who literally saved Nigerian banking system from collapse by getting small banks that were failing left and right to merge and become stronger banks with strong capital base. Again competency of Professor Soludo, former governor of Nigeria central bank was never in doubt. The other was Mrs. Obiageli Ezekwesili who did a great job in several positions she held and was subsequently appointed World Bank vice president. She could not have gotten that position if she did not do a good job. Another was former NAFDAC director general, Dora Akunyili who battled fake drug merchants around the country and was even tougher on merchants from his home state of Anambra. So Mr. Ladipo’s assertion that former president Obasanjo deliberately excluded Yorubas from his cabinet has no merit.

Mr. Ladipo then proceeded to laud Obasanjo’s successor, late president Umaru Yar’Adua for what he termed his successful effort in rolling back dominance of the Igbos in his cabinet and the economy. Yes, it was true that Obassnjo’s privatization effort which would have started yielding fruit before president Jonathan assumed office was rolled back by Yar,Adua through his reacquisition of NITEL, Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries, Ajaokuta steel which he promised Nigerians that they will be in full operation within couple of months which never materialized. Failure of Yar’Adua’s policy of recentralization of Nigeria economy was not of any concern to Mr. Ladipo because his only interest is to see that the power of the Igbos are whittled down. The fact that Nigerian population became poorer as a result of his recentralization policy is of no concern to the gentleman. The fact that late president Yar’Adua emasculated the most significant agency ( EFCC) established by the former president Obasanjo by removing the former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crime Commission(EFCC) Mr. Nuhu Ribadu was of no concern either to Mr. Ladipo who lauded him for his great achievement of rolling back Igbo’s presence in his predecessor’s administration. Also the fact that the Treasury of Nigeria was plundered by cabals that was running the country when late president Yar’Adua was sick is of no concern to Mr. Ladipo.

When Mr. Jonathan became president, he decided to pick the best people for his cabinet positions. House of Representative Speakership was zoned to Southwest region by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) under his watch, but a group of House members conspired and conducted a virtual palace coup by electing a Hausa man, Mr. Tambuwal from Northeast and an Igbo man Mr. Ihedioha as his deputy contrary to PDP zoning policy. As a democrat, President Jonathan could not do much about it, thus, the Yorubas was excluded from the three major branch of the government. I do not know of any Igbo in president Obasanjo or Jonathan’s administration that could be accused of incompetency by any objective observer of Nigeria economic and political landscape.

General Ihejirika, who was appointed by President Jonathan as chief of Army Staff waged a courageous war against Boko Haram, but was accused by some people in the northern region of waging a genocide against the Hausas. He was subsequently retired and a Hausa man, Alex Badeh was elevated to the position of chief of Defense Staff. He promised Nigerians that Boko Haram will be defeated in 4 months which expired couple of years ago.

Then comes the Oba of Lagos threat to drown Igbos in Lagoon if they fail to vote for Lagos state All Progressive Congress (APC) governorship candidate he is supporting. How could any right thinking person in such position make that kind of threat in 2015. I would not have voted for the APC candidate in Lagos if I live there because I do not believe that Lagos government under ACN and APC has done a great job. Lagos is the wealthiest state in Nigeria with substantial federal allocation and internally generated revenue, yet infrastructure development in Lagos is not close to what it should be. If an Igbo man is the gubernatorial candidate of Lagos state under any party, I can assure you that I will not vote for him or her if the party has been in power all this years and has not performed well.

Mr. Ladipo and his ilk are overjoyed that Igbo’s voted for PDP who did not win the presidential election. Mr. Ladipo and his co-travelers are predicting that Igbos are finished because they will not hold one of the four major offices in the land, namely: president, vice president, president of the senate and Speaker of the House of Representative. They are predicting gloom and doom for the Igbos as a result. Mr. Ladipo needs to be reminded that Nigerian presidency/head of state has been passing back and forth between the Hausas and Yoruba’ since 1966. The only exception is the six years of President Jonathan’s tenure. Well the Igbos are still alive after all these years even though they have not held the premier position of Nigerian presidency. Mr. Ladipo should understand that these positions are largely symbolic. The idea that an Igbo or Yoruba or Hausa who occupies any of these positions will significantly improve the livelihood of their ethnic group borders on hallucination. If that is the case, the northern and Southwestern states will be the most developed and richest states in Nigeria considering the fact that the ultimate position, Nigerian presidency has been held by the two regions for the most part. Does this people know that federal allocations to each state are allotted according to an agreed formula. Nigerian constitution requires each state to produce a minister regardless of how the state voted in the election. Mr. Ladipo should understand that performance of a governor of any state has more effect on the development and wellbeing of the people of that state than what happens at the federal level which includes the presidency and the national assembly. If you go to any state, you will observe that development in that state parallels the performance of the governor. Federal presence in most states of Nigeria are minimal.

The Igbos have never relied on government for their livelihood. Available evidence around the world shows that any region of the world that relies on government for their livelihood never fairs better than self-reliant regions. Government in general are inherently less efficient than private enterprises when it comes to service delivery and overall development.

2015 election has come and gone and the president, Vice president, senate president, House speaker, majority leader and minority leader of both chambers and most cabinet members will be of Hausa and Yoruba ethnic extraction which is a dream come through for Mr. Ladipo and his ilk. The ball will be in your court Mr. Ladipo and you will have the opportunity to show your stuff come May 29. If Nigeria doesn’t look like small London or United States America in four years, you and your ilk will be exposed for what you are which is nothing but a tribalist masquerading as an analyst. Mr. Ladipo never misses an opportunity to link Nigeria misfortune to Igbos whom he obviously hates. I have never seen Igbos harass Yourbas or Hausas who resides in any Southeastern Nigeria. It is true that their numbers are small, but they go about their business without problem. The only time I heard threat of retaliation against Hausas who resides in the southeast was when innocent Igbos in the North were killed. President Jonathan was defeated because of the insecurity in northeastern part of Nigeria and unchecked corruption in all Nigerian works of life which crowded out his achievements. Every square mile of Nigeria has been and continues to be decimated by wanton corruption irrespective of the ethnic group who inhabit the place. It is true that president Jonathan did not fight corruption as he should. I have criticized him for his inability to do more in the area of corruption.

The honest fact is that Nigeria could not have advanced and will not fully reach it potential without contribution of Igbos, Yorubas, Hausa and other minorities. I have been a vocal opponent of rotation of political offices because it encourages mediocrity. Any president should populate their cabinet and other political offices with the best people regardless of their ethnic background. When any Nigerian in any office does well, the whole country benefits. Mr. Jega, a Hausa has virtually institutionalized fair election in Nigeria and all Nigerians are the beneficiary of his effort. If general Buhari does well in office, all Nigerians will benefit from it. If he does badly, all Nigerians will lose. If we Nigerians continue this ethnic hatred, Nigeria will never get anywhere. All ethnic groups in Nigeria has always and continues to contribute their quotas to the National development. Nigerian diversity should be seen as a strength not weakness. It is only in Nigeria that governors travels overseas to beg for foreign investment and the indigene of his state turns around and threaten and in some cases chase away other Nigerians who are investing in their states. Every Nigerian has a right to reside in any part of country and must not be harassed by anybody.

Come May 29th, president Buhari and his party, All Progressive Congress (APC) will inherit the good and the bad from President Jonathan’s administration. Being in opposition is easier than governing. It will not be easy for Buhari and his party. They will be judged by their accomplishment within the next four years. Nigerians will be unlikely to reelect them if they did not do a good job. Nigerians wish then success and good luck. Mr. Ladipo must understand that ethnic mongering is a recipe for disaster for a fragile nation like Nigeria. A house divided against itself cannot stand.