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March 2015 Presidential Election: A Political Shocker

The March 2015 presidential election in Nigeria was predictable but still hard to believe that such a fit could be pulled off in Nigeria. Nigeria does not have a history of long term incumbent party been ousted from office. However, the handwriting has been on the wall all along. It was the primary reason the ruling party, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) recommended shifting scheduled election from February 8 to March 28. Throughout this campaign, I was watching Nigeria political landscape to see how the Southwestern region of Nigeria populated by the Yorubas will vote. I have always thought that this presidential election will be lost or won in the southwestern region of Nigeria. The sitting president, Goodluck Jonathan, had to win at least 60 to 70 percent of the votes in the southwest for him to win the election. He needed that percentage of vote to counter the tsunami of Buhari votes from the Northeastern and Northwestern region of Nigeria. Northeast and Northwest region populated by the Hausa’s are Mr. Muhammadu Buhari’s stronghold. South South region and Southeastern region are President Jonathan’s stronghold. President Jonathan could afford to split north central region’s vote and still win.

The dam broke when all but one Southwestern states broke for Mr. Buhari. President elect, Buhari won five out of the six southwestern states. The election was essentially over when the western states started moving Buhari’s way. I guessed that the sitting president realized that the election was over when his party started getting returns from the southwestern states. It appears that PDP including the president knew that it is possible that Mr. Buhari’s party, All Progressive Congress (APC) could win southwest, but did not quite believe that it will actually happen due to what some thought was an alliance or affinity between the southwest and South South region. Alas, the alliance or the affinity was not to be. President Jonathan had to make the best out of what he had left by conceding the election before the official result was declared by the Independent Nigeria Electoral Commission (INEC). President Goodluck Jonathan has always been a gentleman and a democrat. He has consistently said that he will vacate office if he loses election, and that Nigerian presidency including his presidency is not worth the blood of a single Nigerian. The opposition and some Nigerians did not believe that he will keep his word to leave office if he loses the election. President Jonathan has made his supporters and entire Nigerians proud by accepting defeat and conceding the election to the opposition before INEC official declaration of the winner. It is the first time in Nigeria history that a sitting president has done so. He conducted himself like a true states man.

Where should Nigeria go from here? As expected, President Jonathan will hand over power to the president elect, Muhammadu Buhari on May 29, 2015. It should be recalled that this is the fourth time Mr. Buhari ran for Nigerian presidency. He once overthrew civilian president through military coup and ran the country for 18 months before he was overthrown in a counter coup. President elect Buhari obviously has had a lot of time to think about the changes he wants to make in Nigeria. He knows what Nigeria problems are and how some of them could be addressed. The expectation from Nigerians is very high. He needs to deliver quickly before Nigerians will turn against him. The future of Nigeria is now in Mr. Buhari and his party’s shoulder at least for the next 4 years. His re-election will depend on his accomplishment within his tenure.

President elect Buhari and his party’s greatest challenge will be the economy. Good economic policy takes a long time to yield result. I have contended and still believe that President Jonathan’s economic policy of privatization of government own enterprises is the correct policy for Nigeria, even though the benefit of such privatization effort will take few years to yield result. I am hoping that the President elect, Buhari will not resort to recentralization of privatized companies as late president Yar’Adua did. Former president, Yar’Adua on assuming office went ahead and reversed all the companies privatized by his predecessors, former president Olusegun Obasanjo. Late President Yar’Adua bought back the following companies Obasanjo privatized or commercialized: Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries, NITEL, Ajaokuta Steel etc. and promised Nigerians that the companies will be back in full operation within a year which never happened. President elect, Buhari will be making a big mistake if he tries to recentralize Nigerian economy. It has not worked since Nigerian independence and will not work in the future. Furthermore, the endemic corruption which destroyed government owned companies will essentially go away because private companies who bought those government owned corporations will not sit around and watch their investment be filtered away by corrupt employees.

I have no doubt that president elect, Mr. Buhari will do a great job in national security area by wiping out Boko Haram insurgency. However, the president elect should know that crime rate in Nigeria is very high. Nigeria National police Force and the Military cannot stop high crime rate in Nigeria. Nigeria security structure and apparatus must be totally revamped. States governments, local governments should be allowed to establish police force. They need to be a fourth level of government which should be called township or city government which will bring government down to the grassroot where most Nigerians live. The city government should be allowed to establish their own police afer incorporation. Local inhabitants of any state, local government and town will do a better job of locating and prosecuting criminals. Federal police should also be kept in place. Township or city, state and federal police force should be tightly regulated by totally revamped Nigerian Police Service Commission.

On corruption, present elect, Muhammadu Buharis will probably do a better job of reducing corruption than all his predecessors. However, political alliances and mergers between political parties which gave birth to APC before the election might make it difficult for the coming administration to adequately fight corruption. Some members of APC might try to pull out of the alliance or merger if one of their leaders are prosecuted. Some members of APC are not saints. The president elect need to move EFCC out of the presidential domain to a neutral agency which should be funded directly by the legislature to avoid political interference by any sitting president or his or her attorney general which has been the case in the past. EFCC must be under a neutral agency to avoid selective prosecution . That will give a shield to any president who will tell his or party members and other Nigerians that EFCC not him or her is the person prosecuting them.

Furthermore, present elect cannot adequately fight corrupt with immunity clause for governors in place. Constitutional amendment cannot remove immunity clause because the governors will never allow their state legislatures to approve it as we saw in the last round of constitutional amendment. On assuming office, president Buhari has to direct his attorney general to go to the supreme court and seek reinterpretation of the immunity clause for governors. His attorney general should argue that the constitutional assembly members who drafted the immunity clause for governors meant that the clause should be for civil and not for criminal offenses. Immunity clause should only be reserved for the president so that foreign governments or Nigerian citizens will not distract him or her from his job.

President elect is wrong to say that he will pardon anybody who has stolen government money in the past. Nigerians and past governors with pending cases before the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC) and courts should be allowed to proceed. The president elect can pardon them after conviction. EFCC and the police should be allowed to bring new cases of corruption to court. The president and governors have the power to pardon any person after conviction. No president or governor has the power to grant blanket pardon to any Nigerian who committed offense or has pending case before the court.

An independent body should be constituted to search and recommend two to three people to the president for INEC chairman. The president should then pick one of the candidates for INEC chairmanship. The present system where a sitting president picks any person for confirmation by the senate as INEC chairman is bound to plunge Nigeria into another electoral crises and loss of confidence. We may not be lucky next time around to have an honest person like Professor Jega. We saw how some of his predecessors conducted past elections. A political party who controls the national legislature and the presidency could pick a stooge who will do their bidding during election.

Most Nigerians wishes president elect, Mr. Buhari good luck in piloting the affairs of the nation for the next 4 years. However, the success of Mr. Buhari and his party will depend on their accomplishment within the next 4 years. They will hold on to power for 8 years if they do a good job and are inclusive. If not, they will be sweep out of office in 4 years. The impunity of PDP after occupying the office of the presidency and maintaining majority in the national assembly for 16 years was one of the reasons for their defeat. President elect should concentrate more on building durable institutions since presidents come and go. The legacy of any president is his or her achievements while in office.