The stage is now set for 2019 Presidential election between the ruling party, All Progressive Congress (APC) and the main opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). PDP presidential primary which concluded on Sunday, October 07, 2018 was the best I have seen since Nigeria went back to civilian government in 1999. It is unprecedented in Nigerian politics for 13 qualified candidates to contest in a free and fair presidential primary which produced a clear winner. The loser took their loss in good faith primarily because they know that the election was free and fair.
To the winner of the PDP primary, former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, the next few months will be a tough one. It is not easy to dislodge an incumbent president who has been in office for more than three years. President Buhari is tough and will fight hard for re-election. President Buhari have recorded some achievements such as single Treasury Account (TSA) implementation, getting the country out of recession even though the current growth rate is dismal, and his administration have largely stabilized Naira against dollar and other foreign currencies. Under Buhari, Nigerian external reserve has gone up, but Nigerian debt has nearly doubled from 11 to 22 trillion Naira. Servicing the debt cost about 40 to 45 percent of Nigerian yearly revenue. It is an awful place for any country to be. Nigerian debt burden is now where it was when President Obasanjo was elected in 1999 which he subsequently eliminated with the help of his finance minister and foreign creditors. There isn’t much project around Nigeria to show for accumulation of so much debt.
Emergence of Mr. Abubakar as PDP presidential candidate is a nightmare scenario for President Buhari. President Buhari’s campaign would have wished PDP to select an unknown figure or a weak candidate as their flag bearer. Mr. Abubakar is extremely qualified to be Nigerian president. He possesses much of what President Buhari lacks such as business and extensive political experience. He knows different regions of the country and the people that live there better than President Buhari and he is detribalized. He can move around and interact with Nigerians of all ethnicity with ease. On the other hand, a lot of Nigerians do not think that President Buhari has been even handed in political appointments. Even some northerners have decried his political appointments as as unfair to southerners. Huge drawback for Mr. Abubakar is corruption. He has not been able to shake off perception among Nigerians that he is corrupt. The fear that Nigerians have about PDP is that massive corruption which took place under their watch in the past will return. Success of Mr. Abubakar will depend on his ability to convince Nigerians that PDP which embodied corruption have changed and that he is not personally corrupt. Corruption is where president Buhari has advantage. He is not viewed by most Nigerians as personally corrupt.
In terms of regional voting patterns, selection of Mr. Abubakar to be PDP presidential candidate is the worst-case scenario for President Buhari compared to the rest of the candidates he ran against. Mr. Abubakar can easily win couple of states in the Northeast region which will dissemble current APC coalition. He is likely to win lopsided victory in South South, Southeast and some north central states. It is difficult to predict who will win South western states. President Buhari will likely win lopsided victory in the North west region. It will be difficult to win election in Nigeria with mostly Northwestern and Southwestern states votes, assuming President Buhari can even win in all South western states.
The coming presidential election will be the most competitive election in Nigeria. It is a good development for Nigerian democracy. Nigerians are gradually building a durable democratic nation with strong two-party system. The world is taking notice of what is going on there. Nigeria electoral umpire, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) cannot afford to make mistake in the coming presidential election. The coming State Houses of Assembly, Governor, National Assembly and Presidential election must be free, fair and transparent.