2019 election has come and gone. President Buhari has been re-elected and will be Nigerian president for the next four years unless the election tribunal decides to nullify his election. I do not think that will happen. A lot of Nigerians and most International community do not like the election outcome, but they have grudgingly accepted the election result. A lot of people wanted a change but have resigned themselves to the fact that it will be business as usual for the next four years. They will be no major changes such as restructuring of Nigerian federation, establishment of state and local police forces which will effectively address the acute security situation facing the country and implementation of bold economic policies that can change the fortune of the country. These changes will have to wait for another leader. Insecurity in Nigeria today has reached alarming rate. It was a Southern phenomenon few years ago, but that monster has now reached the northern parts of the country with more brutality. Current administration’s answer to the security problem is to continue with the centralized federal police force instead of decentralized state and local police force. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different result.
Why is the 2023 presidential primaries and general election a ticking time bomb that could end up causing enormous chaos and another push for independence by regions that feel they have been marginalized for too long. When the military government restored democracy in 1999, Mr. Olusegun Obasanjo from the Southwest geopolitical zone became Nigerian president and was Nigerian president for 8 years. He was once Nigerian president during military regime. After president Obasanjo’s tenure, the northern part of Nigeria insisted that it is their turn and power subsequently shifted to the north and President Yar’Adua from the north west political zone won the presidency. Yar’Adua died in office and his vice president, Mr. Goodluck Jonathan from South South geopolitical zone finished his term and won a full 4- years term. Power moved back to the north and current President, Mr. Buhari from the Northwest geopolitical zone won 4-year term in 2015 and just won re-election for another 4-year term. His vice president Mr. Osinbanjo is from the Southwest geo-political zone who will complete another 4-year term as vice president.
The coming political flashpoint is that the Southwest political zone led by Mr. Bola Tinubu not only want the presidency to move to the south which is fine but they want the presidency to be zoned to Southwest that has held presidential office for 8 years, vice president for four years and will hold vice president for another 4 years. Meanwhile, Southeast, North East and North Central political zone have not held the presidential office at all since the restoration of civilian rule in 1999. The South South do not believe that 6 years of Jonathan tenure is enough. Will these zones that never held the presidency agree to be bystanders and obediently watch the North west and South West region trade the presidency. I do not think so. The two zones will argue that it is democracy in action. They will infer that other zones should go and form the necessary alliance required to produce the president. While that is true, human beings can react in a very negative manner when they feel that the principle of equity and fairness has been sacrificed. When people do not feel like they have a stake in something, they are likely to cause mischief since they will feel like they have nothing to lose. It will be dangerous for Nigeria to play games or marginalize any part of the six geo-political zones. The end result will not benefit Nigeria going by what happened to Yugoslavia, Sudan etc.
Some prominent Northerners are already saying that power must stay in the north. It is more than likely that power will not return to the south and very unlikely that APC will zone their presidential candidate to the South west. The northerners will even use South west quest for another presidential term to justify not zoning the presidency to the South. They will say that a zone that has held the presidency and Vice president for 8 years each cannot occupy that office for the time being. They will likely prefer that the presidency go to the north central. It is likely that the unwritten power rotation between the north and south will die a natural dead in 2023.The northern part of Nigeria will discard it as a relic that is no longer needed.
When the north and south power rotation dies, the north will likely start playing southeast against southwest for the vice-presidential position. Successive northern candidate will either pick a South western or South eastern as vice presidential candidate to boast their ticket.
It should be noted that President Buhari never believed in zoning. He ran for president when other parties were busy zoning presidential primaries to various zones. Anybody who is serious about power rotation should make it legal by amending the constitution. Nigerian federation as we know it will be tested in 2023 and may not survive the aftermath.